James Forrest
The Emperor of Ice Cream
Celtic have pressure this summer. That is obvious. I wrote about it yesterday. The Champions League qualifier we face is a fuse already burning towards the powder, and if we are not ready for it, the explosion will be heard all the way through the boardroom.
But let’s be honest about something else. Across the city, the stakes may be even higher.
Because at least Celtic know this much: if we make a mess of the Champions League qualifier, there is Europa League football waiting beneath us. That does not make failure acceptable. It does not make it painless. It does not make it anything other than another indictment of the people who keep sending us into these games underprepared.
But there is a safety net. The Ibrox club does not have the same luxury.
Their route is far more dangerous. Celtic’s Scottish Cup win over Dunfermline put them into the Europa League third qualifying round rather than the Conference League route, and their campaign is now due to begin on 6 August.
That was treated in some quarters as a blessing, and in one sense it is. It gives them a better competition to aim for and a little more preparation time than the Conference League route would have done. But it also puts them into a high-pressure European shootout at a point in the summer when their squad may still be half-built.
That is the gamble. And it is not a small one.
The new Ibrox board has to make a decision. Do they spend before Europe is secured, strengthen the squad early and take the financial risk? Or do they wait to see which competition they are actually in before committing serious money?
Both options carry danger.
If they spend early and lose, they are carrying a squad built on revenue that may not arrive. If they wait and lose, they will have failed because they were not brave enough to back the manager before the games that mattered.
That is the trap. It is also the kind of trap Ibrox boards have a long and hilarious record of walking into.
Danny Rohl has already had a rough enough time of it.
Since taking over as boss he has been knocked out of the League Cup, Scottish Cup and condemned to third place in the Premiership by Martin O’Neill’s Celtic. His European record is equally dreadfully. That is the platform from which he leads them into the next campaign.
Let’s be kind and call it unconvincing. There is no body of work there which should fill anyone at Ibrox with confidence. This is not a manager with a long record of navigating difficult two-legged European ties. This is a manager still trying to prove he can handle the job domestically, never mind steer a half-rebuilt squad through the kind of games that can shape an entire season.
They have already started moving. Lawrence Shankland has signed, and the media are already treating it like the arrival of a messianic figure with a boot deal. Rohl has praised his scoring record, leadership and experience, which is all very nice, but Shankland alone does not solve the structural problems in that squad.
That is the thing about Ibrox summers. There is always one obvious signing presented as evidence of a grand plan. Then come the games.
And reality, for them, is dangerous this year.
Because their European qualification is not just about prestige.
It is about money. Serious money. They are a club which needs European revenue. We want it. We should be targeting it. We should be maximising it. But we do not need it to keep the lights on. They do. That is why this is fascinating.
Because the Americans now have their first proper strategic decision to make.
Not the easy PR stuff. Not talking about ambition. Not telling the media how much they love the place. Not signing the boyhood supporter from Hearts and watching the old guard melt into misty-eyed poetry. A real decision.
Spend now or wait. Risk now or hedge. Back the manager or protect the balance sheet.
That is where football ownership becomes a test.
If they go hard now, they may improve their chances of getting through. But they also expose themselves if Rohl falls on his face. If they hold money back, they protect themselves financially, but they also increase the chances of failing in the first place.
There is no clean road through this. That is what makes it delicious.
Because the Ibrox club has spent years trapped in the same cycle. Every manager needs a rebuild. Every rebuild needs money. Every summer is apparently the start of something new. Every autumn, the same cracks appear again. Every defeat is treated as proof the last rebuild was not ambitious enough, which means the next rebuild has to be even bigger.
This is how clubs get caught in the doom loop.
The problem for them this year is that Europe comes too early for comfort. Their pre-season return date has already been pulled forward because of the Europa League third qualifying round. They had to knock back a friendly against Dynamo Dresden because the schedule is tight. That tells you everything you need to know about the squeeze they are already under.
They do not have endless time.
They do not have the luxury of waiting until late August to see what falls into their lap. They need a squad ready for meaningful football in early August. Not friendly football. Not “minutes in the legs” football. Not media-tour training-ground nonsense.
Proper football. European football. The kind that costs you if you are not ready.
That is why this is such a big gamble for them.
Celtic’s challenge is clear enough. We need to get our house in order because the Champions League qualifier is huge. But if the worst happens, Europa League football still provides income, profile and a platform.
For the Ibrox club, failure could be catastrophic.
They could go into the summer needing to strengthen to qualify, but needing qualification to justify strengthening. That is the kind of circular trap which ruins planning.
And if they fail? The financial cost will be severe. The sporting cost will be worse. The psychological cost might be worse still.
Because what then becomes of the American revolution? What then becomes of the new era? What then becomes of Cavanaugh’s love affair with the place? What then becomes of the grand transfer strategy, the domestic raiding policy, the Shankland signing, the promises of ambition and the breathless media coverage?
It all gets tested in one brutal month and Rohl, who is already in trouble, will be feeling the heat in a big way. The media can talk them up. It can talk about bright lights, new owners, fresh ambition and Scottish-based recruitment. It can present Shankland as the missing piece. It can pretend that finishing third was merely a temporary inconvenience on the road to inevitable greatness.
But football is not a sport which waits for that. It is ruthless. It cares whether you are good enough when the test actually arrives.
This is a team that finished third, lost its nerve in the post-split games and now has to rebuild while entering European football early. This is a manager with plenty still to prove. This is a board that has to decide whether to gamble money it may not get back, or hold back and risk missing the revenue altogether.
That is a high-wire act.
The funniest thing is that they will almost certainly try to present whatever choice they make as strategy. Spend early, and it will be proof of ambition. Wait, and it will be proof of discipline. Fail, and it will somehow be proof they need more time. Succeed, and the open-top bus will be booked before the playoff draw is finished.
But they are under pressure. Real pressure.
The Ibrox club has to qualify for Europe proper. It has to get meaningful European revenue. It has to give the new regime credibility. It has to give Rohl a platform. It has to convince its supporters that third place was an aberration rather than the first honest snapshot of where they actually are.
That is a lot to hang on a summer rebuild and a set of qualifiers.
And if it goes wrong, it will go wrong loudly.
Because their fans will not accept “wait and see.” They will not accept “sensible spending.” They will not accept “long-term project.” Not if Europe is gone before the season has even properly started. Not if Celtic are sitting with a European group-stage safety net while they are staring into the void.
So yes, Celtic have a massive summer ahead. But across the city, the gamble is even more brutal. Spend before they know where they are, and risk throwing good money after bad. Wait until they know where they are, and risk being too weak to get there.
That is the choice. That is the trap.
And for a club that has spent years confusing noise with momentum, it may be the first real test of whether this new regime has any sense at all.
Choose The CelticBlog as a ‘Preferred Source’ on Google News for quick access to the news you value.
The post The Ibrox club faces the same ticking clock as Celtic, only worse. appeared first on The Celtic Blog.
Continue reading...
But let’s be honest about something else. Across the city, the stakes may be even higher.
Because at least Celtic know this much: if we make a mess of the Champions League qualifier, there is Europa League football waiting beneath us. That does not make failure acceptable. It does not make it painless. It does not make it anything other than another indictment of the people who keep sending us into these games underprepared.
But there is a safety net. The Ibrox club does not have the same luxury.
Their route is far more dangerous. Celtic’s Scottish Cup win over Dunfermline put them into the Europa League third qualifying round rather than the Conference League route, and their campaign is now due to begin on 6 August.
That was treated in some quarters as a blessing, and in one sense it is. It gives them a better competition to aim for and a little more preparation time than the Conference League route would have done. But it also puts them into a high-pressure European shootout at a point in the summer when their squad may still be half-built.
That is the gamble. And it is not a small one.
The new Ibrox board has to make a decision. Do they spend before Europe is secured, strengthen the squad early and take the financial risk? Or do they wait to see which competition they are actually in before committing serious money?
Both options carry danger.
If they spend early and lose, they are carrying a squad built on revenue that may not arrive. If they wait and lose, they will have failed because they were not brave enough to back the manager before the games that mattered.
That is the trap. It is also the kind of trap Ibrox boards have a long and hilarious record of walking into.
Danny Rohl has already had a rough enough time of it.
Since taking over as boss he has been knocked out of the League Cup, Scottish Cup and condemned to third place in the Premiership by Martin O’Neill’s Celtic. His European record is equally dreadfully. That is the platform from which he leads them into the next campaign.
Let’s be kind and call it unconvincing. There is no body of work there which should fill anyone at Ibrox with confidence. This is not a manager with a long record of navigating difficult two-legged European ties. This is a manager still trying to prove he can handle the job domestically, never mind steer a half-rebuilt squad through the kind of games that can shape an entire season.
They have already started moving. Lawrence Shankland has signed, and the media are already treating it like the arrival of a messianic figure with a boot deal. Rohl has praised his scoring record, leadership and experience, which is all very nice, but Shankland alone does not solve the structural problems in that squad.
That is the thing about Ibrox summers. There is always one obvious signing presented as evidence of a grand plan. Then come the games.
And reality, for them, is dangerous this year.
Because their European qualification is not just about prestige.
It is about money. Serious money. They are a club which needs European revenue. We want it. We should be targeting it. We should be maximising it. But we do not need it to keep the lights on. They do. That is why this is fascinating.
Because the Americans now have their first proper strategic decision to make.
Not the easy PR stuff. Not talking about ambition. Not telling the media how much they love the place. Not signing the boyhood supporter from Hearts and watching the old guard melt into misty-eyed poetry. A real decision.
Spend now or wait. Risk now or hedge. Back the manager or protect the balance sheet.
That is where football ownership becomes a test.
If they go hard now, they may improve their chances of getting through. But they also expose themselves if Rohl falls on his face. If they hold money back, they protect themselves financially, but they also increase the chances of failing in the first place.
There is no clean road through this. That is what makes it delicious.
Because the Ibrox club has spent years trapped in the same cycle. Every manager needs a rebuild. Every rebuild needs money. Every summer is apparently the start of something new. Every autumn, the same cracks appear again. Every defeat is treated as proof the last rebuild was not ambitious enough, which means the next rebuild has to be even bigger.
This is how clubs get caught in the doom loop.
The problem for them this year is that Europe comes too early for comfort. Their pre-season return date has already been pulled forward because of the Europa League third qualifying round. They had to knock back a friendly against Dynamo Dresden because the schedule is tight. That tells you everything you need to know about the squeeze they are already under.
They do not have endless time.
They do not have the luxury of waiting until late August to see what falls into their lap. They need a squad ready for meaningful football in early August. Not friendly football. Not “minutes in the legs” football. Not media-tour training-ground nonsense.
Proper football. European football. The kind that costs you if you are not ready.
That is why this is such a big gamble for them.
Celtic’s challenge is clear enough. We need to get our house in order because the Champions League qualifier is huge. But if the worst happens, Europa League football still provides income, profile and a platform.
For the Ibrox club, failure could be catastrophic.
They could go into the summer needing to strengthen to qualify, but needing qualification to justify strengthening. That is the kind of circular trap which ruins planning.
And if they fail? The financial cost will be severe. The sporting cost will be worse. The psychological cost might be worse still.
Because what then becomes of the American revolution? What then becomes of the new era? What then becomes of Cavanaugh’s love affair with the place? What then becomes of the grand transfer strategy, the domestic raiding policy, the Shankland signing, the promises of ambition and the breathless media coverage?
It all gets tested in one brutal month and Rohl, who is already in trouble, will be feeling the heat in a big way. The media can talk them up. It can talk about bright lights, new owners, fresh ambition and Scottish-based recruitment. It can present Shankland as the missing piece. It can pretend that finishing third was merely a temporary inconvenience on the road to inevitable greatness.
But football is not a sport which waits for that. It is ruthless. It cares whether you are good enough when the test actually arrives.
This is a team that finished third, lost its nerve in the post-split games and now has to rebuild while entering European football early. This is a manager with plenty still to prove. This is a board that has to decide whether to gamble money it may not get back, or hold back and risk missing the revenue altogether.
That is a high-wire act.
The funniest thing is that they will almost certainly try to present whatever choice they make as strategy. Spend early, and it will be proof of ambition. Wait, and it will be proof of discipline. Fail, and it will somehow be proof they need more time. Succeed, and the open-top bus will be booked before the playoff draw is finished.
But they are under pressure. Real pressure.
The Ibrox club has to qualify for Europe proper. It has to get meaningful European revenue. It has to give the new regime credibility. It has to give Rohl a platform. It has to convince its supporters that third place was an aberration rather than the first honest snapshot of where they actually are.
That is a lot to hang on a summer rebuild and a set of qualifiers.
And if it goes wrong, it will go wrong loudly.
Because their fans will not accept “wait and see.” They will not accept “sensible spending.” They will not accept “long-term project.” Not if Europe is gone before the season has even properly started. Not if Celtic are sitting with a European group-stage safety net while they are staring into the void.
So yes, Celtic have a massive summer ahead. But across the city, the gamble is even more brutal. Spend before they know where they are, and risk throwing good money after bad. Wait until they know where they are, and risk being too weak to get there.
That is the choice. That is the trap.
And for a club that has spent years confusing noise with momentum, it may be the first real test of whether this new regime has any sense at all.
Choose The CelticBlog as a ‘Preferred Source’ on Google News for quick access to the news you value.
The post The Ibrox club faces the same ticking clock as Celtic, only worse. appeared first on The Celtic Blog.
Continue reading...
