Ambitious Moonbeams v Virtuous Hard work

All celtic supporters I would presume want only the best for the club and forums such as this allow them a space to air their views on how they feel the club should move forward. They may or may not have the intellect, literacy or financial acumen to compare with you TET but they still love the club and forums would be very boring without open exchanges of views.
I was not a supporter of the NL appointment but that chapter has now closed. To be honest I have not seen any posts that advocate a withdrawal of support and most of the stuff aimed at the board seems to come from fears, rightly or wrongly, that the board will not invest sufficiently from our position of strength. Couple that with the bonus paid to PL,despite no CL group place and you may empathise a bit more with the doubters in our support. That is not the same as being against a professionally run club and board.
Despite my misgivings I still believe NL can do a good job for us given realistic financial help from the board. As I said here's hoping.
 
Lemon said:
All celtic supporters I would presume want only the best for the club and forums such as this allow them a space to air their views on how they feel the club should move forward. They may or may not have the intellect, literacy or financial acumen to compare with you TET but they still love the club and forums would be very boring without open exchanges of views.
I was not a supporter of the NL appointment but that chapter has now closed. To be honest I have not seen any posts that advocate a withdrawal of support and most of the stuff aimed at the board seems to come from fears, rightly or wrongly, that the board will not invest sufficiently from our position of strength. Couple that with the bonus paid to PL,despite no CL group place and you may empathise a bit more with the doubters in our support. That is not the same as being against a professionally run club and board.
Despite my misgivings I still believe NL can do a good job for us given realistic financial help from the board. As I said here's hoping.
Click to expand...
well said Lemon,the window is a week away from openin,then we'll be better able to gauge which way we're goin,until then everything else is speculation, Hail Hail.
 
Lemon said:
All celtic supporters I would presume want only the best for the club and forums such as this allow them a space to air their views on how they feel the club should move forward. They may or may not have the intellect, literacy or financial acumen to compare with you TET but they still love the club and forums would be very boring without open exchanges of views.
I was not a supporter of the NL appointment but that chapter has now closed. To be honest I have not seen any posts that advocate a withdrawal of support and most of the stuff aimed at the board seems to come from fears, rightly or wrongly, that the board will not invest sufficiently from our position of strength. Couple that with the bonus paid to PL,despite no CL group place and you may empathise a bit more with the doubters in our support. That is not the same as being against a professionally run club and board.
Despite my misgivings I still believe NL can do a good job for us given realistic financial help from the board. As I said here's hoping.
Click to expand...

Have you read the constant sniping before a single player has been bought.

I am not against people thinking its not their choice.

But the constant twisting of things to suit fake news is disturbing.

If you haven't read some of the pieces by James Forrest site The celtic blog then I suggest you do to get a flavour of the extreme contempt.

And the constant gutter sniping with no real constructive criticism or any ability to justify the hatred of Lawell is bang out of order.

For anyone to say lawell holding club back without expanding on the objective truth of their inner fears is wrong.

But to blame him for things that Rodgers failed is out of order.

Even worse when they relentlessly continue even when they cant argue in favour of their instincts.

Im quite willing to back hard evidence that supports any objective criticism.

But to have the celtic blog claim it loves celtic yet attack with total garbage for weeks now and refuse to stand up to his claims. then that shows real contempt for objectivity. Yet that's what he claims is his motivation to expose in MSM.

Open exchanges of views is great. But its not been open exchange of views its constant I cant answer that but I think he is pish. Why? then they go on about stuff that doesn't stack up. so you ask them about it and they just repeat ad nauseam things that are not fair criticisms.

They sometimes even try justify the massive mistakes and wealth destruction and mayhem created by Rodger dodger. And then attack lennon based on rodgers failings. blame lawell for rodgers failings, defend rodgers to hilt then obscure everything that lennon has done amazingly as ordinary. yet pass off pure shite from rodgers as excellent and now we have gone backwards.

Rodgers inherited a good team

he made it better for a while, its possible the gel that Ronnie was trying to gel was fruitful under rodgers because ronny had broke back of the gel and synergy.

after about 50 games of invincible season team has went backwards under rodgers despite spending huge sums on very ordinary players.

But lennon is shit

Thats the level of gut spewing we have.

Not lennon players.

he finished off what rodgers was making worse and worse

Now he needs to fix the mess rodgers made.

I still haven't heard of a cost effective alternative to lennon who can sign better players than lennon.

but still the hatred is there.

despite forrest claiming he gets behind the team and club. he is gutter sniping with pure conjecture and extreme bias and extreme prejudice with not intelligent objectivity in his sniping. And there are many many on here who believe in this mythical excellent cash burning plan that will be successful but cannot attempt to explain how it killed rangers but that's the way forward for Celtic.

To say its just open frankness is masking a deep contempt.

How does club afford the luxury players these forrest types think we should be financing like roberts

love Roberts he rejected clubs wage structure

but still its lawell who failed

others say they want one moon beam player at least? why?

I remember years ago st Mirren sold Ian Ferguson to rangers and brought in a moonbeam player who was utter waste of money.

I hear there are lots players out there cheap who could do a job. yes of course. but that's my point rodgers cant do that for club. he cant spot talent hidden. neither can any of the moonbeam managers like Mourinho. they can spot very best players but those guys cost mega moonbeam wages

And therefore these top top level managers are useless at our level.

lennon has history of unearthing gems

but the hatred is there. its clear as day.

I want AVB

why he only knows about players whose wages are above our market level

he never had to look at hidden gems before because they are too risky. too risky for teams he manages.

club does not have ability to go beyond 50 million ordinary wages without extreme risk. that equates 75 million champions league level wages

if the club get 105 million

that leaves 30 million to pay all other costs and bills assuming we get champions league group

50 million is very risky wage bill level for all staff at club

it doesn't get too many high quality moonbeam type player with class to make club much better.

roughly 1 million per week for all staff at club, sounds a lot but when you start looking at split between 100 or so staff its quite tight.

now when other clubs were not subsidised as much the size of celtic as club could compete for best players

that's gone

but most fans think we can afford Henrik Larsson types.

in this market Henrik Larson would command 200k+ per week
Lubo 100K+ per week
Sutton 150K+ per week

Celtic could afford better player than West Ham

But West Ham player get up to 5 times what we pay in ordinary term without bonuses.

they win jack but can afford more than us when we win treble and pay bonus for champions league.

But still its lawell who is problem.

I am certain without Lawell Celtic would be close to bankrupt with zero in bank up to eyes in debt and struggling like pre mccann

But still fans don't want to see the truth

they want better players to compete with Barcelona Man City Bayern Munich

they all have in excess of 500million wage bills per season

we cant afford West Ham players yet they won't make us better in clg

and they will bust club without sugar daddy or subsidisation.
 
TET said:
Have you read the constant sniping before a single player has been bought.

I am not against people thinking its not their choice.

But the constant twisting of things to suit fake news is disturbing.

If you haven't read some of the pieces by James Forrest site The celtic blog then I suggest you do to get a flavour of the extreme contempt.

And the constant gutter sniping with no real constructive criticism or any ability to justify the hatred of Lawell is bang out of order.

For anyone to say lawell holding club back without expanding on the objective truth of their inner fears is wrong.

But to blame him for things that Rodgers failed is out of order.

Even worse when they relentlessly continue even when they cant argue in favour of their instincts.

Im quite willing to back hard evidence that supports any objective criticism.

But to have the celtic blog claim it loves celtic yet attack with total garbage for weeks now and refuse to stand up to his claims. then that shows real contempt for objectivity. Yet that's what he claims is his motivation to expose in MSM.

Open exchanges of views is great. But its not been open exchange of views its constant I cant answer that but I think he is pish. Why? then they go on about stuff that doesn't stack up. so you ask them about it and they just repeat ad nauseam things that are not fair criticisms.

They sometimes even try justify the massive mistakes and wealth destruction and mayhem created by Rodger dodger. And then attack lennon based on rodgers failings. blame lawell for rodgers failings, defend rodgers to hilt then obscure everything that lennon has done amazingly as ordinary. yet pass off pure shite from rodgers as excellent and now we have gone backwards.

Rodgers inherited a good team

he made it better for a while, its possible the gel that Ronnie was trying to gel was fruitful under rodgers because ronny had broke back of the gel and synergy.

after about 50 games of invincible season team has went backwards under rodgers despite spending huge sums on very ordinary players.

But lennon is shit

Thats the level of gut spewing we have.

Not lennon players.

he finished off what rodgers was making worse and worse

Now he needs to fix the mess rodgers made.

I still haven't heard of a cost effective alternative to lennon who can sign better players than lennon.

but still the hatred is there.

despite forrest claiming he gets behind the team and club. he is gutter sniping with pure conjecture and extreme bias and extreme prejudice with not intelligent objectivity in his sniping. And there are many many on here who believe in this mythical excellent cash burning plan that will be successful but cannot attempt to explain how it killed rangers but that's the way forward for Celtic.

To say its just open frankness is masking a deep contempt.

How does club afford the luxury players these forrest types think we should be financing like roberts

love Roberts he rejected clubs wage structure

but still its lawell who failed

others say they want one moon beam player at least? why?

I remember years ago st Mirren sold Ian Ferguson to rangers and brought in a moonbeam player who was utter waste of money.

I hear there are lots players out there cheap who could do a job. yes of course. but that's my point rodgers cant do that for club. he cant spot talent hidden. neither can any of the moonbeam managers like Mourinho. they can spot very best players but those guys cost mega moonbeam wages

And therefore these top top level managers are useless at our level.

lennon has history of unearthing gems

but the hatred is there. its clear as day.

I want AVB

why he only knows about players whose wages are above our market level

he never had to look at hidden gems before because they are too risky. too risky for teams he manages.

club does not have ability to go beyond 50 million ordinary wages without extreme risk. that equates 75 million champions league level wages

if the club get 105 million

that leaves 30 million to pay all other costs and bills assuming we get champions league group

50 million is very risky wage bill level for all staff at club

it doesn't get too many high quality moonbeam type player with class to make club much better.

roughly 1 million per week for all staff at club, sounds a lot but when you start looking at split between 100 or so staff its quite tight.

now when other clubs were not subsidised as much the size of celtic as club could compete for best players

that's gone

but most fans think we can afford Henrik Larsson types.

in this market Henrik Larson would command 200k+ per week
Lubo 100K+ per week
Sutton 150K+ per week

Celtic could afford better player than West Ham

But West Ham player get up to 5 times what we pay in ordinary term without bonuses.

they win jack but can afford more than us when we win treble and pay bonus for champions league.

But still its lawell who is problem.

I am certain without Lawell Celtic would be close to bankrupt with zero in bank up to eyes in debt and struggling like pre mccann

But still fans don't want to see the truth

they want better players to compete with Barcelona Man City Bayern Munich

they all have in excess of 500million wage bills per season

we cant afford West Ham players yet they won't make us better in clg

and they will bust club without sugar daddy or subsidisation.
Click to expand...
TET, I am in agreement with much of your post and like you would like to see an end to the sniping at the board and their managerial choice. I also agree that our last manager and his team made some poor signings and was beginning to feel that his ability was more in raising the standards of already good to average players rather than spotting talent. I think a new manager would have been required this coming season anyway and we got cash for our old one. Good news!
I think we all agree that new faces are required - between 3 and 11 depending on who you read- and I am willing to wait and see how our new look team and management fare before launching any criticism. Others may feel that questioning the board and their alleged lack of ambition is a worthwhile tactic, not to destroy our club but to exert pressure on the board not to let up in our quest for 10 in a row.
We are in a glorious position - 8 titles and 9 trophies on the bounce but we all are feeling the pressure of the approaching big titles and do not want this fantastic opportunity to slip away especially not for the sake of a few million quid. Cut the naysayers some slack TET, let us see how it all pans out, the manager has been chosen and the crucial new additions should be here soon. I promise that I will remain positive and confident that our new manager can take us there. He will have the biggest budget so I see no reason for failure. HH.
 
Lemon said:
TET, I am in agreement with much of your post and like you would like to see an end to the sniping at the board and their managerial choice. I also agree that our last manager and his team made some poor signings and was beginning to feel that his ability was more in raising the standards of already good to average players rather than spotting talent. I think a new manager would have been required this coming season anyway and we got cash for our old one. Good news!
I think we all agree that new faces are required - between 3 and 11 depending on who you read- and I am willing to wait and see how our new look team and management fare before launching any criticism. Others may feel that questioning the board and their alleged lack of ambition is a worthwhile tactic, not to destroy our club but to exert pressure on the board not to let up in our quest for 10 in a row.
We are in a glorious position - 8 titles and 9 trophies on the bounce but we all are feeling the pressure of the approaching big titles and do not want this fantastic opportunity to slip away especially not for the sake of a few million quid. Cut the naysayers some slack TET, let us see how it all pans out, the manager has been chosen and the crucial new additions should be here soon. I promise that I will remain positive and confident that our new manager can take us there. He will have the biggest budget so I see no reason for failure. HH.
Click to expand...
Hail Hail Lemon
 
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At the end of May 2021 when we have won 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 in a row we have to leave Scottish football and be in a better league. 4 qualifying rounds early season for entry to the real CL is squeeky bum time. No guarantees of successfully reaching the group stages. With our stadium and fans we could be one of the best teams in UK but not whilst stuck in the Masonic quagmire.
 
Fisiani said:
At the end of May 2021 when we have won 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 in a row we have to leave Scottish football and be in a better league. 4 qualifying rounds early season for entry to the real CL is squeeky bum time. No guarantees of successfully reaching the group stages. With our stadium and fans we could be one of the best teams in UK but not whilst stuck in the Masonic quagmire.
Click to expand...
 
TET said:
Is there anything in what I see as the Moonbeam theory that the Killed Rangers stone dead?

Can that theory of building castles in the sky work?

Or do you need a grounded theory with ambition, tempered by the correct risk factors?

What are these correct risk factors? How do you attempt to quantify them?

Now, lets try and make some fundamental building blocks to see if a better understanding can be achieved. And we will attempt to put out some arbitrary but hopefully realistic and to a certain extent justified set of risk factors based on recent years income numbers. But a certain level of basic quantified numbers that can individually be analysed and discussed and amended if necessary, why, just to come up with some risk factors that should be considered every season, but still remain on the ambitious side of risk without loony tunes excessive gambling.


Some assumptions

these assumptions are basic and can be changed if argued as false

Assumption 1 Winning the treble generates 55m income
Assumption 2 Reaching the Europa League Group generates 25m income
Assumption 3 Winning Champions league Play off match and reach CL group generates a further 25m

Pretty simplistic assumptions but imo pretty decent rule of thumb for building basic risk model

Risk for assumption 1

What ordinary operation cost is correct? to win the 55m maximum ordinary income?
Lets say 10 percent profit is what your looking for from your risk. so 5 million profit is expected ordinary profit from winning treble.
That would mean ordinary operating costs should not exceed 50m which leaves 5m profit as growth for that season.
So operating costs include on simplistic level
Staff wages + other operating costs
lets stick an arbitrary figure of 10 percent of income as other operating costs and wages as 90 percent of operating costs.

that would mean to achieve the expected income we estimate
55m income
45m wages
5m other operating costs

5m profit.

Risk for assumption 2

First off what bonus level is correct for the Bhoys who achieved the title, and earned the right to compete in Europe?
Well we know that bonus needs to be competitive.

So lets say 50 percent increase in the wages if they achieve champions league and 25 percent increase if the achieve europa league group.

So instantly without adding any more players to team the 50 million operating costs has become 63.75 [(45x1.25) 56.25 + (5+2.5) 7.5] This includes wage bonus and rather arbitrary figure set at other operating income

so

if europa league group is achieved

80m income
56.25 wages
7.5 other operating costs.

16.25 m profit

Risk for assumption 3

So lets say 50 percent increase in the wages if they achieve champions league and 25 percent increase if the achieve europa league group.

So instantly without adding any more players to team the 50 million operating costs has become 77.5 [(45x1.5) 67.5 + (5+5) 10] This includes wage bonus and rather arbitrary figure set at other operating income.

if CL group is acheived

105m income
67.5 wages
10 other operating income

27.5 profit



Sounds really good yeah nice profit but thats based on ordinary wages of 45 million and income for treble being 55million

Also club was hoping for 5 million profit from treble alone
So so minus that from Champions league profit under these conditions

And that 50 million windfall from champions league has been reduced to 22.5 profit that can be used to enhance your club.


Still sounds pretty decent right?

But its long way from the MSM income figure quoted and assumed banked by too many.

22.5 million is still pretty decent

So lets tax risks to maximum and see what figures that means are available to build a team.



105 million income for champions league
lets say club only wants 5 million profit any given year

so 100 million is max figure for max ambition
lets say the other operating income figure for champions league is good rule thumb, so 10m

thats wages including champions league set at 90 million

if that 90 million is with 50 percent bonus for achieving champions league then ordinary wages without champions league would be 60 million
Add the ordinary costs not included and 65 million is your operating costs minimum under those extremely risky conditions.

Which would mean 10 million loss if you failed to reach champions league 2.5 million loss if you reached europa league group and 5 million profit if you reached the champions league group.

it would also be much worse than 10 million loss if treble not won

And I suspect in excess of 20million loss if league not won.

so ramping up ordinary wages to the very maximum risk would require treble and champions league in that season just to get 5 million profit.

Seems fool hardy to me.

And that extremely risky level is reached with ordinary wages before bonus set at 60 million for entire club for the year.


So somewhere between the two risk models seems correct but I would suggest never taking ordinary wages beyond 50 million before bonuses. but not below 45 million.


Now you may say this model is too simplistic, or you may decide I have missed out key figures.

I possibly have.

Im looking for the best risk model for the club.

Not crazy moonbeam models based on 60 million from champions league with no costs incurred.

Have you got a more suitable model?

do you have better figures than my arbitrary assumptions that imo seem bout right?


feel free to add your thoughts

even if its to say ya nutter

Absolute straw

moonbeams are better than your straw man garbage.

Or even better you think im reading all that shite, I want a team that can win the champions league and your realistic approach to football is depressing, Lennon is a backward step. AVB would have been better, even though him alone probably chews up most of the max max max operating wages of 60 million.
Click to expand...

It’s £3.5m for the treble. I don’t know if anybody who thinks it’s £55m. That level of cash requires CL.

Europa League? Again buttons. Never heard anybody quote £25m.

It’s £3.5m for Treble. The winners of the EL get only about £5m.

Not sure who was quoting those figures to you, but, if they did, they probably need a carer. Or a calculator at the least.
 
Theverdict1 said:
It’s £3.5m for the treble. I don’t know if anybody who thinks it’s £55m. That level of cash requires CL.

Europa League? Again buttons. Never heard anybody quote £25m.

It’s £3.5m for Treble. The winners of the EL get only about £5m.

Not sure who was quoting those figures to you, but, if they did, they probably need a carer. Or a calculator at the least.
Click to expand...
im talking about the reality

if celtic win treble but lose first game in cl qualifiers then income for that season is 55m based on accounts

If they reach champions league group income can jump to 105 million

you don't need quotes from people or carers or calculators you take last few years audited accounts

And if they are unqualified accounts then the auditor thinks these figures are trust worthy

And if they have international auditor expert approval then the information that appears in the annual accounts has been through the calculator test the carer test and the expert test.

now some people don't get unqualified accounts like Sevco

so that means auditor thinks there could be a few carer cons going down.

I didn't take my assessment from quotes

I took it from accounts

and I used arbitrary figures to build a realist model

realist model based on the accounts approved by international auditors

if your quote of 3.5 million for treble is correct

then what are the player wages based on this figure?
 
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