Lawwell's step towards mediocrity - Celtic's European star is descending

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Winning Captains Bolingoli said:
Lawwell's step towards mediocrity - Celtic's European star is descending

Niall J take on the Celtic Financial Results that were released on Friday...

thecelticstar.com

'Lawwell's step towards mediocrity – Celtic's European star is descending,' Niall J | The Celtic Star

THE CELTIC STAR ran a story on Friday afternoon entitled 'The Financial Cost of Celtic's Greek Tragedy revealed in PLC Annual Results'. It is well worth a read if you would be so inclin
thecelticstar.com thecelticstar.com
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Very good points ,distinguishing between business side of things and playing side ,I agree entirely we’re it is coming from ,the analogy of the building company ,makes sense ,and is spot on !agree we have let them creep up on us, not because they are as good as us! But that we have taken our eye of the ball, we need CL money ,no doubt about that ,?I can fully understand the business side of the article ,have had my own business since 1970 ,just retired in building trade ,worked with my son ,two man business or 1000 man business ,the principal is the same !!!!!!!we are irrelevant in Scotland,thanks due to rubbish performances from the rest , off course we can’t rest on our laurels, some of our results need no dissecting,hh
 
Winning Captains Bolingoli said:
Lawwell's step towards mediocrity - Celtic's European star is descending

Niall J take on the Celtic Financial Results that were released on Friday...

thecelticstar.com

'Lawwell's step towards mediocrity – Celtic's European star is descending,' Niall J | The Celtic Star

THE CELTIC STAR ran a story on Friday afternoon entitled 'The Financial Cost of Celtic's Greek Tragedy revealed in PLC Annual Results'. It is well worth a read if you would be so inclin
thecelticstar.com thecelticstar.com
Click to expand...
Managing risk

The risks are huge now that its 4 game qualifier.

What is the correct risk ante?

If we assume you get 50 million revenue for winning the 4 qualifiers.

And if we assume 50 million is income from treble

aiming for 100 million income approx is target top end

Europa League plus some big player sales< not sure if player sales are capital gains or income though

But lets assume EL + first KO gets us 80 million

then 4 income figure possibilities are 100 CL, 75 EL, 50 treble but no Europe, 30 second in league

So my question is what is the wage budget you would allocate with those approx figures in mind.

Forget about money in bank for minute.

second in league 30
treble 50
el 75
CL 100

what odds would you put on getting those income levels?
 
Superb artical by Niall J, the Boyata situation shouldn't have been allowed tae happen, when he threw his toys out the pram, Lawwell should have been straight on the phone tae Fulham & sold the prick.

Every season winning lge & CL Group stages, should be a priority for the team & manager. I don't no what the bonus structure is but there should be one for CL qualifying, then one for finishing 2nd or 3rd.

Also Pistol Pete should get the finger out & get new players in before pre season starts or a least for start of CL qualifying, it's not as if the club is skint.

I hate using Football Manager as a comparison I've tried Pistol Petes way, but I find getting players in early allows the team tae gel quicker, than trying tae integrate players in when season already underway.
 
Thanks for the feedback folks and taking the time to read it. Much appreciated. I must point out I have no issues with the finances I care little what our budget is. I always assume the manager is aware of it and has his targets to suit. What I'm after is as TartanTim says is, get the business whatever the budget done early. We are more than used to these early qualifiers now yet every year we seem lost as to the impact our lack of strategy and planning has on our ability to qualify.
This issue should be a problem for both the footballing side and the accountants.
We are missing out on the money and the footballing reputation that comes from being at the top table.
If we failed with a squad already in place I'd hold my hands up and move on. When the wounds are self infiicted by a lack of foresight, planning or one individual trying to micro manage then I have a problem. It's becoming a recurring theme and it smacks of an eye off the footballing side of the 'business. It's shoddy practice.
 
TartanTim said:
Superb artical by Niall J, the Boyata situation shouldn't have been allowed tae happen, when he threw his toys out the pram, Lawwell should have been straight on the phone tae Fulham & sold the prick.

Every season winning lge & CL Group stages, should be a priority for the team & manager. I don't no what the bonus structure is but there should be one for CL qualifying, then one for finishing 2nd or 3rd.

Also Pistol Pete should get the finger out & get new players in before pre season starts or a least for start of CL qualifying, it's not as if the club is skint.

I hate using Football Manager as a comparison I've tried Pistol Petes way, but I find getting players in early allows the team tae gel quicker, than trying tae integrate players in when season already underway.
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I think the bonus system is in place and chews up huge chunk of cl income

I agree with Boyata situation but chances are without equal replacement for last season at short notice it would risk title, well im guessing thats Rodgers rational for demanding he be kept. I suspect he was already working his notice and the board didn't trust his judgement anymore with large purchases. But can you imagine the reaction if he was sacked with Boyata and Dembele with new manager with 10 minutes to select and sanction replacements without getting stiffed for monster premiums.

Getting good enough players in pre cl usually means buying CL quality players who are often at clubs trying to get to champions league themselves, so won't part with high grade players without massive premium until the window limit.

If they are good enough to be playing champions league you can bet bidding war will kick off if Celtic identify a key target that early. Selling clubs if they are run well dont need to sell without massive bids.

Besides the club selling fanbase won't be happy with low price early in the window, just like us they want best players.

So getting best players in at value is very tricky business in a market full of clandestine operators, agents and clubs with massive sky wages.

Trouble with FM is teams sell at reasonable prices coz its not real world.

Real world is where Celtic play and as much as I agree getting best players early would be ideal, the costs can be exorbitant if its not done with value added in mind.
 
Niall J said:
Thanks for the feedback folks and taking the time to read it. Much appreciated. I must point out I have no issues with the finances I care little what our budget is. I always assume the manager is aware of it and has his targets to suit. What I'm after is as TartanTim says is, get the business whatever the budget done early. We are more than used to these early qualifiers now yet every year we seem lost as to the impact our lack of strategy and planning has on our ability to qualify.
This issue should be a problem for both the footballing side and the accountants.
We are missing out on the money and the footballing reputation that comes from being at the top table.
If we failed with a squad already in place I'd hold my hands up and move on. When the wounds are self infiicted by a lack of foresight, planning or one individual trying to micro manage then I have a problem. It's becoming a recurring theme and it smacks of an eye off the footballing side of the 'business. It's shoddy practice.
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Thats the trouble with the plan though, its not specific.

I suspect we are still too high on wages currently which means adding better on field very difficult without running season at losses.

without understanding the wage budget, money in bank means nothing. its the operating costs for a season that kill club. the capital investment side is healthy, but without CL, we currently have a wage bill too high, which means you cant add better players without going burst beyond the limits.
 
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To give you a glimpse

we have approx 30 million in bank

Thats not even enough to cover the wages for a year.

So one bad year contractually would chew that entire massive sum in 6 months.

So the wage budget which is the gambit you are risking to earn the top end of 100 million is vital and with the massive risks involved Im guessing setting wage budget before bonuses for treble winning season would be close to 50 million since thats the earning capacity.

if the players get 50 percent hike bonus on wages that chews up another 25 million of CL earnings instantly and when you add in the other operating costs and add ons like travel and security you get meagre diluted portion of the 50 million quoted as earned.

So, getting CL players at Celtic wages is very difficult when the can get double just for playing at duff EPL clubs
 
TET said:
Thats the trouble with the plan though, its not specific.

I suspect we are still too high on wages currently which means adding better on field very difficult without running season at losses.

without understanding the wage budget, money in bank means nothing. its the operating costs for a season that kill club. the capital investment side is healthy, but without CL, we currently have a wage bill too high, which means you cant add better players without going burst beyond the limits.
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Why not? Bar loan deals I'd be surprised if we haven't culled our wage bill massively from last season yet the quality looks high (to date) sadly too late again to have the benefit show for European progression.I agree it's probaby still substantial. Too high? Who knows. My point isn't finance it's planning.
If we take a Sevilla approach for instance, they plan 2/4 transfer windows ahead as they assume they will have to qualify or play UEFA. Means they can attract players in advance without agents/players knowing what money they are playing with as even the club don't know. they work to a budget, planned in well in advance.
When that happens the club can to some extent at least have some control.
I appreciate you want the debate to move purely to finances. That hasn't been my point. It's a lack of preperation I have an issue with.
 
Niall J said:
Why not? Bar loan deals I'd be surprised if we haven't culled our wage bill massively from last season yet the quality looks high (to date) sadly too late again to have the benefit show for European progression.I agree it's probaby still substantial. Too high? Who knows. My point isn't finance it's planning.
If we take a Sevilla approach for instance, they plan 2/4 transfer windows ahead as they assume they will have to qualify or play UEFA. Means they can attract players in advance without agents/players knowing what money they are playing with as even the club don't know. they work to a budget, planned in well in advance.
When that happens the club can to some extent at least have some control.
I appreciate you want the debate to move purely to finances. That hasn't been my point. It's a lack of preperation I have an issue with.
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I genuinely think they do plan

Its the budgets that stymie the deals through agents doing the agents job, and players holding out for better financial deal.

you can plan all you want and im sure they do it overkill

its getting it done without paying over the odds on wages and initial premiums

Thats my point

It is exploited by our msm, filling peoples heads with one sided twisting, coupled with silence that makes celtic look like they aren't on ball.

I dare say Bolingoli was not top target for left back, but the guys they wanted on pecking order probably demanded too much wages, or the selling club was using the interest to conjure up behind scenes agent bidding wars, coupled with the clubs themselves not really willing to lose a key player if they are competing for 50Million CL income.
 
Niall J said:
(y) My point exactly.
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Long term financial added value must be included in the planning and when window closes long after CL qualifiers starts, getting your plans done pronto is so expensive it blows the whole point of getting to CL

If club got to CL but ran at a loss due to paying wages they cant afford then thats worse than planning ahead in budget but failing to get to CL but properly risked assessed the wage budget cut to cloth.

Its easy to get better players if you have 100M from sky and satellite every season which every EPL club gets.

But Celtic must compete with those teams for best players and hope they willing to come for less wages than Sky subsidised clubs.

And that part seriously hinders the planning process

When you discount the most vital part of the planning process as not so important you are NOT properly planning for future in sustainable manner.

You are imposing unrealistic aspirations on Club hierarchy which while be exploited by our ABC press while promoting the reckless financial exploits across city.
 
TET said:
I genuinely think they do plan

Its the budgets that stymie the deals through agents doing the agents job, and players holding out for better financial deal.

you can plan all you want and im sure they do it overkill

its getting it done without paying over the odds on wages and initial premiums

Thats my point

It is exploited by our msm, filling peoples heads with one sided twisting, coupled with silence that makes celtic look like they aren't on ball.

I dare say Bolingoli was not top target for left back, but the guys they wanted on pecking order probably demanded too much wages, or the selling club was using the interest to conjure up behind scenes agent bidding wars, coupled with the clubs themselves not really willing to lose a key player if they are competing for 50 CL income.
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Your point therefore is you believe they are planning. Mine is I don't believe they are or at least haven't been to now. The evidence in qualifiers was fairly damning. Ajer to right back, Bolingoli covered by McGregor. If we've been planning it's been weeks in advance, not structured.
We have a football model seperate from finance that goes CEO-Manager (even though the CEO himself said in Lenny's press conference at appointment that a DOF role was required). We currently have a temp post (without a title) as a DOF or head of recruitment. We waited after BR's exit to allow Congerton to get us some compensation and then went about our business. We employed Hammond late. We were not planning ahead. We may be now. Could be Hammond's role will be extended. Could be he's put a great scouting plan in place from Youth level to First team. Could be we're targetting players well in advance. Could be. Hope so. It would be long overdue.
 
TET said:
Long term financial added value must be included in the planning and when window closes long after CL qualifiers starts, getting your plans done pronto is so expensive it blows the whole point of getting to CL

If club got to CL but ran at a loss due to paying wages they cant afford then thats worse than planning ahead in budget but failing to get to CL but properly risked assessed the wage budget cut to cloth.

Its easy to get better players if you have 100M from sky and satellite every season which every EPL club gets.

But Celtic must compete with those teams for best players and hope they willing to come for less wages than Sky subsidised clubs.

And that part seriously hinders the planning process

When you discount the most vital part of the planning process as not so important you are NOT properly planning for future in sustainable manner.

You are imposing unrealistic aspirations on Club hierarchy which while be exploited by our ABC press while promoting the reckless financial exploits across city.
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every 10 years every EPL who been in it for the 10 years gets 1 billion from sky

All of them get that

thats before they get ticket sales or positional earnings from the English FA

So they get a billion pounds at least every 10 years and thats the reason its hard to get better players without breaking the bank
 
We are on a slow decline , as we have been since around 2004/5 ....best we can hope for is a bonus place in the CL every three or four years .
We are , now , a Europa League outfit , but even that will be under threat if we continue as we are .
But , hey , we might win 10 iar ... so that's all that matters ...to some !

HH
 
Niall J said:
Your point therefore is you believe they are planning. Mine is I don't believe they are or at least haven't been to now. The evidence in qualifiers was fairly damning. Ajer to right back, Bolingoli covered by McGregor. If we've been planning it's been weeks in advance, not structured.
We have a football model seperate from finance that goes CEO-Manager (even though the CEO himself said in Lenny's press conference at appointment that a DOF role was required). We currently have a temp post (without a title) as a DOF or head of recruitment. We waited after BR's exit to allow Congerton to get us some compensation and then went about our business. We employed Hammond late. We were not planning ahead. We may be now. Could be Hammond's role will be extended. Could be he's put a great scouting plan in place from Youth level to First team. Could be we're targetting players well in advance. Could be. Hope so. It would be long overdue.
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Your not understanding the barriers to planning niall

Money is the barrier

Rodgers had blown his budgets and walked

That alone means next guy needed to solve the positional problems

But the agents and selling clubs know celtic need to solve very problems so agents and clubs drag out the negotiations hoping celtic make a rash bid then war
 
TET said:
every 10 years every EPL who been in it for the 10 years gets 1 billion from sky

All of them get that

thats before they get ticket sales or positional earnings from the English FA

So they get a billion pounds at least every 10 years and thats the reason its hard to get better players without breaking the bank
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TET. I'm aware of the finacial disparity. I am not talking of winning it. I'm talking of qualifying for it. I'm talking of getting our house in order and being ready to go in advance. I'm not comparing us to EPL riches. To date we have been unprepared even against clubs who lack our financial clout. AEK/Cuj. You can prepare on a budget of 100k or 1 billion pounds. You just need to prepare. My point is stucture and strategy. Staff and planning. If we failed due to finances fine. When it is self inflicted due to late reactionary planning or none at all, I have an issue with that. I appreciate you opinion of course.
 
Millsy said:
We are on a slow decline , as we have been since around 2004/5 ....best we can hope for is a bonus place in the CL every three or four years .
We are , now , a Europa League outfit , but even that will be under threat if we continue as we are .
But , hey , we might win 10 iar ... so that's all that matters ...to some !

HH
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Sadly I dont think we can stop the slide while Eufa and TV deals dish out 100 million to their favoured leagues

That income bias without EUFA preferential treatment would make slide permanent

but eufa decision to promote the same clubs sky promote means its only going to get worse

We pick up the crumbs when the EPL decide to take our best players

And replacing them into SPL market and Celtics limited income means we need to replace with riskier cheaper options we hope can make grade here, until EPL decide they want him.

Thats why our standard if falling.

The difference between a 10 million player and 10k player is so slight these days that to get good enough for CL you need 20M+ players in on 60K+ wages

And only EPL level clubs can afford that for players
 
Niall J said:
TET. I'm aware of the finacial disparity. I am not talking of winning it. I'm talking of qualifying for it. I'm talking of getting our house in order and being ready to go in advance. I'm not comparing us to EPL riches. To date we have been unprepared even against clubs who lack our financial clout. AEK/Cuj. You can prepare on a budget of 100k or 1 billion pounds. You just need to prepare. My point is stucture and strategy. Staff and planning. If we failed due to finances fine. When it is self inflicted due to late reactionary planning or none at all, I have an issue with that. I appreciate you opinion of course.
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you cant plan without the budgets clear, is what im saying, if the selling club know that if celtic want a player then lower EPL clubs might fancy him for more, and they will hold out as long as possible to get best deal

For some reason Niall you are forgetting the problems with planning surround money mate

Ours is limited And we can get less than adequate players asap for positions but that doesn't solve the CL qualifying problem

Solving that problem requires excessive bids

Which celtic dont have resources to do.

The wage budgets dictate the limits

And that seriously hinders planning when selling club want best deal and when window is open they won't sanction sales for high grade players, so early in window.

And to add to that EPL clubs can stymie deal by offering double last minute
 
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